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European trucks are now on the path to decarbonisation, a clear sign of the effectiveness of the EU CO2 standards for heavy-duty vehicles after decades of no progress.
But the ICCT analysis also shows that truckmakers have so far preferred higher ICE truck efficiency over electrification as their main compliance route. As a result, the uptake of zero-emission trucks on the market is slower than expected. This is now a pretext that manufacturers are using to call on the European Commission to bring forward the review of the CO2 standards.
This would be a big mistake: staying the course is crucial to ensure truckmakers really start ramping up zero-emission truck production. Solid and ambitious regulation will provide the ground to move past marginal improvements to polluting trucks, as well as certainty for charging providers to invest in a European charging network.
EU truck CO2 targets are starting to work
After a long 25-year period where the real-world diesel consumption of tractor-trailers stagnated at 35 l/100km from 1995 to 2021, fuel economy is finally improving. All European manufacturers have reduced their truck CO2 emissions from 2019 to 2023, as a direct result of the truck CO2 standards and the upcoming -15% CO2 target in 2025.
Manufacturer fleet average specific CO2 emissions relative to the baseline. From ICCT (2025) Within Reach – The 2025 CO2 targets for new heavy-duty vehicles in Europe.
Not only are trucks getting more fuel efficient, we see more electric truck models coming to market. By ACEA’s count, at least 45 battery-electric and hydrogen truck models are now available in the EU, spanning all use cases from urban distribution to long-haul trucking, regional deliveries to city construction. And more are to come: both Renault Trucks and IVECO have announced long-haul electric trucks with 600 km range, with deliveries starting in 2026.
Truckmakers prioritise cleaner diesel instead of electrification
But so far, most emission savings have come from more efficient ICE trucks, rather than higher zero-emission sales. Even for Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks, which together represent over half of the zero-emission heavy truck market, only one-third of the CO2 savings are due to zero-emission sales. For MAN, Scania, and DAF, which altogether make up a quarter of the electric heavy truck market, less than 10% of the CO2 savings so far can be attributed to electric trucks.
The focus on cleaner ICE trucks results in a slower-than-expected electric truck uptake. On average, only 1.7% of new registrations within the scope of the truck CO2 standards were zero-emission in 2024, far from the 6% we had projected would be required to reach the 2025 target. But ICE efficiency improvements have exceeded our expectations, and based on ICCT’s analysis, only Daimler Truck and IVECO still need to increase their electric truck share to comply. Assuming both make full use of the regulatory flexibility allowing manufacturers to trade zero-emission vehicles:
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Daimler Truck would need to sell 3.4% zero-emission trucks in regulated subgroups to comply, up from 2% in 2024. Alternatively, it could simply shift its diesel truck sales towards more efficient models to comply with the target, without having to increase its electric sales.
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IVECO would need, in combination with ICE efficiency improvements, to reach either a 3.3% zero-emission share in regulated subgroups (about 450 vehicles), or just a 1.5% zero-emission share in long-haul groups (about 210 vehicles).
Why delaying the shift to zero-emission is bad news
In practice, some of the improvements to ICE trucks carry over to electric trucks. Better aerodynamics for instance both lowers fuel consumption for diesel trucks and improves electric range. But for the most part, the focus on marginally improving ICE technology is putting electrification at risk.
For example by delaying the ramp-up to zero-emission, manufacturers are making it difficult to estimate how much public charging will be needed in the coming years. Fears of low utilisation can lead charging providers to undersize charging locations or postpone investments, feeding into a vicious circle.
Fewer electric trucks on the market also makes it difficult for truck operators to reap the benefits of lower road tolls granted to low- and zero-emission trucks, or to anticipate the implementation of ETS2 in 2027.
Delivering for 2030
By 2030, a third of new heavy-duty vehicles have to be zero-emission to reach the -45% CO2 target (31% based on our modelling, 35% according to ACEA). Reaching that level will require a strong policy framework. While ACEA attributes today’s slower-than-expected ZET uptake to a lack of enabling conditions such as “competitive charging prices, dedicated incentives, CO2-based road user chargers”, they do not mention that all truckmakers have so far prioritised cleaner ICE trucks instead of zero-emission trucks as their main pathway to compliance, and use this slower uptake as a reason to call they call on EU policymakers to review the CO2 targets earlier than 2027. The clear lead from Volvo Group in scaling up electric truck sales is proof it can be done.
Reviewing the HDV CO2 standards early would be a mistake as too little data on manufacturer compliance will be available. The 2026 reporting period, running from July 2026 to June 2027, will be the first year when manufacturers will have to meet the -15% CO2 target without the use of emission credits earned before 2025. The ICCT analysis suggests that such credits will be key for Renault Trucks, DAF, and MAN to easily comply in 2025 without additional efforts. So how manufacturers ramp up sales of electric trucks in 2026 once pre-2025 credits have been used up will be essential information to assess market readiness.
Instead of an earlier review of the standards, EU and national policymakers should accelerate their work on key measures such as:
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Removing roadblocks to truck charging deployment, e.g. by accelerating permitting procedures as part of the Grid Package
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Lifting potential payload penalties for zero-emission trucks by reaching a compromise on the Weights and Dimensions Directive
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Ensuring truck operators can pass on the extra cost of decarbonisation efforts to their customers by regulating shippers (i.e. cargo owners) to go zero-emission as part of the Clean Corporate Fleets initiative
Note: for simplicity, we use electric and zero-emission interchangeably here to designate both battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV).
