With a potential to cut CO₂ emissions by more than 90 per cent compared to fossil jet fuel, e-SAF is the most sustainable aviation fuel, and it can be produced at scale. Explore the parts of the world that are leading on its development, and how close Europe is to reaching the EU’s targets.
There are 64 announced large-scale projects world-wide, with 26 due to be operational by 2030. Driven by ReFuelEU and the UK SAF mandate, European projects account for more than half of the global announced production capacity. China follows as the second-largest hub, representing around 20% of global capacity.
If all the announced large-scale projects became operational, global production capacity could reach 2.1 Mt by 2030, and 5.0 Mt in total (i.e. roughly 10% of EU jet fuel demand). However, to T&E’s knowledge, except for Infinium’s Project Roadrunner in the US, none of these projects, be that in Europe or abroad, has reached a FID, and timelines remain uncertain.
41 large-scale e-SAF projects are under development in Europe
3 million tonnes of e-SAF could be produced in Europe if all large-scale projects went ahead
Europe houses about half of the world’s potential e-kerosene production capacity. Around 40 large-scale projects are planned in Europe, with a potential production capacity close to 3 million tonnes (Mt) – around 5% of the fuel that Europe’s aviation sector needs to operate.
Europe’s early lead in the e-kerosene market has been driven by the EU’s law on sustainable aviation fuels, ReFuelEU, which sets specific targets for using e-fuels. The top markets here boast low-carbon grids and strong renewable energy resources.
€1–2 billion needed per e-SAF plant on average
Despite favourable conditions, e-kerosene projects continue to face significant hurdles in Europe, including challenges related to energy costs, infrastructure, and CO₂ sourcing. Only four of large-scale European projects are at an advanced stage, and none have reached a final investment decision (FID).
Financing poses the biggest barrier, with each plant requiring €1–2 billion in capital, bringing total capital requirements to €10 - 20 billion by 2030. EU funding mechanisms for e-kerosene are not strong enough to support the level of investment needed to get these projects off the ground. Moreover, major oil companies have made negligible contributions to e-kerosene, while continuing to spend billions on fossil fuels.
To help steer Europe's E-SAF market back on course, T&E makes the following recommendations:
Preserve the ambition of ReFuelEU and implement it via the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP)
Improve public funding mechanisms to ensure long-term revenue certainty and trigger offtake agreements
Mobilise public financial institutions to de-risk investment
Unlock renewable energy and CO₂ resources for project developers
Guarantee fair and open access to jet fuel infrastructure
Clarify definitions and enforcement mechanisms for e-SAF (non-)compliance