Report

Biofuels: indirect land use change and climate impact

June 29, 2010

When biofuels are grown on existing arable land, indirect land use change (ILUC) will ensue, since current demand for food and animal feed will push these production activities into new areas such as forests or grasslands. Conversion of forest or grassland to agricultural land can lead to very significant releases of carbon to the atmosphere.

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In this report we consider the issue of indirect land use change initiated by EU biofuels policy and seek to answer the following questions:

What is the probability of biofuels policies initiating land use changes?
What greenhouse gas emissions may result from indirect land use change, expressed as a factor in the mathematical relation given above?
What technical measures can be applied and what policy measures adopted to limit or entirely mitigate indirect land use change and the associated greenhouse gas emissions?

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