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The current production forecasts show that most carmakers are ready to embrace electrification and are leaving behind the ‘technology neutrality’ approach, focusing on scaling up electric car volumes instead. After several years of timid growth, the number of EV models produced across the EU (and available on the market as a result) is about to surge to new heights: from about 60 battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and fuel cell (FCEV) models available at the end of 2018, up to a combined of 176 models in 2020, 214 models in 2021 and 333 models expected in 2025. This is no coincidence since 2020/21 is the year when the mandatory EU CO2 target of 95g/km is kicking in.
Based on the light vehicle production forecast data acquired by T&E from IHS Markit, and in-house analysis, the production of electric vehicles in Europe is expected to multiply six-fold between 2019 and 2025, reaching more than 4 million cars and vans, or more than a fifth of the EU car production volumes. T&E modelling shows that if carmakers stick to their plans, this will be more than enough to comply with the EU Car CO2 standards for 2025 recently agreed, or a minimum of 15% in 2025.
The supply of EU-manufactured batteries is also expected to be sufficient after 2023, provided the current plans are delivered. Currently, at least 16 large-scale lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing facilities exist or are likely to come online across Europe. The confirmed plans alone will deliver up to 131 GWh of battery production capacity in 2023 (growing to 274 GWh in 2028). The 2023 demand needed to electrify vehicles (cars, vans, buses and trucks) and for stationary storage batteries is estimated by T&E at around 130 GWh, or within the planned capacity provided it comes online on schedule.