EVs displace five times more oil globally than they did five years ago - analysis

At COP26 in Glasgow, twenty-four countries and a group of leading car manufacturers committed to ending the era of fossil-fuel powered vehicles by 2040 “or earlier”. Five years and two energy crises later, oil savings from EVs globally are up fivefold, new T&E analysis shows. EVs are the single most effective way of cutting oil demand, improving energy security and reducing emissions, says T&E.

While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) represent just 4.2% of the global fleet, they now account for 25% of all new car sales worldwide - up from 6.6% five years ago. This surge has pushed oil displacement from 215,000 barrels a day in 2021 to 1.2 million barrels a day today, or roughly 1.2% of global consumption.

At the same time, electric buses now make up 5% of the global fleet, battery electric trucks are at 1% but in some countries exceed 50% of new sales. T&E estimates these vehicles avoid as much as 320,000 barrels a day. As road transport burns close to half of all the world’s oil, transitioning to EVs is crucial in reducing oil dependency. As the global car and truck fleet continues to grow, EVs are the only thing stopping runaway oil demand, warns T&E.

As electrification takes center stage at this year’s COP, current policies put battery electric cars on track to displace roughly 5.8 million barrels of oil a day by 2034 - matching the sustained disruption seen during the 2026 crisis. Accelerating EV adoption will be crucial to preventing future oil shocks, according to T&E.

Antony Froggatt, senior director at T&E, said: “Electric vehicles are the single most effective way of cutting oil demand. Right now the only winners in our oil addiction are fossil fuel giants and petrostates. Places with near 100% sales of EVs like Norway, Denmark and Hong Kong have effectively insulated themselves from future shocks. Five years after Glasgow, EVs stand as one of the clearest victories in global climate history. At this year’s COP, world leaders must set binding electrification targets. Not just for the climate, but for national security."

BEVs on the road now avoid more than 200 Mt of CO₂-equivalent a year. According to T&E, rapid transport electrification is a vital part of the wider energy transition by providing essential grid flexibility and storage. Just as past COPs accelerated the global boom in wind and solar, backing for electric vehicles at COP31 can deliver the same breakthrough, slashing oil demand and driving emissions down.

ENDS

Methodological note

[1] Displaced oil is estimated from daily per vehicle savings: about 0.019 barrels per car (derived from Ember), 0.2 per truck (IEA) and 0.15 per bus (bottom-up from typical fuel use and mileage). The 2026 supply loss has been estimated at 5.8 million barrels a day. We use IEA fleet projections for 2030 and 2035 fleet sizes to calculate the offset year of the BEV car fleet. Results exclude plug-in hybrids, vans and two- and three-wheelers.

For the chart, global capacity and generation for up to 2024 come from the US EIA. For 2025, we used IRENA capacity additions and Ember generation data. Values for 2026 are T&E estimates based on Chinese installation data to September 2026 and generation on IEA mid-year growth forecasts. Global BEV sales from Ember.