Oil companies set to make €24 billion in excess profits from European drivers this year

Oil majors are set to make a €24 billion[1] windfall from European drivers off the back of the latest conflict in the Middle East, a new T&E tracker shows[2]. Oil companies have already made €1.3 billion in excess profits, the analysis shows. The tracker is updated every Thursday.

T&E calls on the EU to implement a tax on excess profits and use the funds to support Europeans to become less vulnerable to future oil shocks.

Daniel Quiggin, senior policy advisor at T&E, said: “Once again drivers’ pain is oil companies’ gain. Oil companies have every incentive to keep Europe hooked on fossil fuels, as they're the ones benefiting from price spikes. The EU should reinstate its tax on excess profit and invest the proceeds in the electrification and renewables that will finally break that cycle."

Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, oil prices have risen rapidly. By 23 March, average EU pump prices had reached €2.06 per litre for diesel and €1.89 per litre for petrol - an increase of €0.49 and €0.27, respectively. Filling a 55-litre diesel tank now costs almost €27 more than it did before the conflict began, and €15 more for a petrol car.

In 2022, the EU introduced a 33% levy on fossil fuel profits which were above 20% the 2018 to 2021 average. This raised an estimated €28 billion between 2022–23. The mechanism exists and should be used again, says T&E.

European diesel refining margins have outpaced other regions, reflecting a structural shortfall in domestic refining capacity. By contrast, petrol margins have been more subdued due to high inventories in the US and Europe, as well as weak seasonal demand. The EU remains more structurally dependent on diesel than petrol imports. With around 20% of Europe's diesel imported, these excess profits will be made in non-EU jurisdictions, limiting the effectiveness of any EU-based windfall tax.

ENDS

Note to editors

[1] Extrapolated to the rest of the year 2026. Figure will change as the tracker is updated.
[2] T&E’s estimate is conservative in that it covers only road fuels and does not capture excess profits from jet fuel, marine fuel, heating oil or other refined products sold in Europe. See methodological note for more details.