3 million tonnes of e-kerosene could be produced in Europe if all announced projects went ahead
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90% Aviation could reduce its CO₂ emissions by this amount if it used e-kerosene
Europe a leader on e-kerosene announcements, laggard on implementation
A new T&E study shows that Europe can be a leader in e-kerosene (also called e-SAF), housing more than half of the world’s announced production capacity. Around 40 large-scale projects [1] are planned in Europe, with a potential e-kerosene production capacity of close to 3 million tonnes (Mt) per year – roughly 5% of the fuel that Europe’s aviation sector needs to operate.
Europe’s early lead in the e-kerosene market has been driven by the EU’s law on sustainable aviation fuels, ReFuelEU, which set specific targets for using e-fuels in aviation. If all the announced projects were built, the EU could meet these targets – but none of the large-scale plants identified in this report are even under construction. Only four are at an advanced stage [2], and none have reached a final investment decision (FID). This slow progress is due to an array of challenges, with financing posing the biggest barrier, and traditional fuel suppliers being notably absent from the conversation.
Camile Mutrelle, Aviation Policy Officer at T&E, said “The EU’s law on sustainable aviation fuels kick-started an e-kerosene revolution in Europe – but fuel suppliers are not cashing in on this potential. Without more final investment decisions, the EU’s 2030 target and plans to prosper from green aviation will fail. To succeed, these projects need a stable legal framework, as provided by ReFuelEU, and funding through an array of public support mechanisms and private capital investments.”
With a potential to cut CO₂ emissions by more than 90% compared to fossil kerosene, e-kerosene is key to decarbonising aviation, an emission-intensive industry that is projected to keep on growing [3]. As representatives of the industry gather at the International Paris Air Show today, an event showcasing the growth, prowess and latest innovations in aviation, the study’s findings highlight that despite progress, the path to significantly reducing aviation emissions through truly sustainable solutions remains long and complex.
While Europe is currently the leader for e-kerosene [4], other markets are creeping up. China is the second-largest hub – around 10 large-scale projects have been announced here, representing around 20% of global capacity. The United States is also picking up the pace, with the largest e-kerosene offtake agreement to date secured by a US-based startup, and one of the world’s first FIDs for a large-scale e-kerosene plant secured in May by Infinium, another US-based startup [5].
Funding bottlenecks and oil majors are hampering progress
Despite favourable conditions, e-kerosene projects continue to face significant hurdles in Europe, including challenges related to energy costs, infrastructure, and CO₂ sourcing. Regulatory uncertainty is also in the mix, brought about by industry pressure [6] to delay ReFuelEU’s SAF targets in anticipation of the scheduled review of the legislation in 2027
Financing poses the biggest barrier, with each plant requiring €1–2 billion in capital, bringing total capital requirements to €10 - 20 billion by 2030. EU funding mechanisms for e-kerosene are not strong enough to support the level of investment needed to get these projects off the ground, and traditional fuel suppliers are notably absent from the conversation. To date, major oil companies have made negligible contributions to e-kerosene, while continuing to spend billions on fossil fuels.
“Despite their huge financial capacity, major oil companies are largely absent from the e-kerosene market,” Camile Mutrelle acknowledged. “Startups have taken the lead, but lack the internal resources to finance the capital-intensive infrastructure that is urgently needed. Getting oil majors on board and EU financing mechanisms up to scratch will give e-kerosene the lift-off it needs. The upcoming Sustainable Transport Investment Plan is a chance to set the right flight path by prioritising e-SAF, providing a comprehensive mechanism to address the challenges EU projects face.”
T&E urges EU leaders to reaffirm their commitment to the existing ReFuelEU targets, especially in the run-up to the legislation’s scheduled review, and prioritise e-kerosene in the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP). It also calls for a European market intermediary using a double-sided auction mechanism to be established to address the current issues around financing.
Notes to the editor:
[1] Large-scale projects are defined as ones with a production capacity of more than 10,000 tonnes of e-kerosene a year.
[2] This means the project is either undergoing the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) phase or pending final investment decision (FID) after completing their FEED.
[3] T&E, 2025. Down to earth: Why European aviation needs to urgently address its growth problem
[4] The top five markets in terms of announced production capacity are France (0.8 Mt), Norway (0.3 Mt), Finland (0.3 Mt), Sweden (0.3 Mt) and the Netherlands (0.3 Mt), countries which boast low-carbon grids and strong renewable energy resources. France is home to the most announced projects in Europe (11), doubling its projects and production capacity since last year.
[5] The Infinium project is set to produce up to 23,000 tonnes of e-fuels per year.
[6] Financial Times, 2025. “European airlines urge EU to pull back on climate policies”
