32 million hectares Biofuel land use today
Why are biofuels harmful?
The use of crops and croplands for biofuel feedstocks has encouraged the expansion of farming into previously unfarmed areas leading to land clearance, habitat loss, and significant greenhouse gas emissions from lost vegetation and soil disruption.
Taking land out of food production can also contribute to increased food prices, potentially worsening poverty levels in some of the world’s most vulnerable communities.
Governments worldwide are enacting policies to support the production and consumption of biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels.
Various policy instruments are being used to promote biofuel supply ranging from blending mandates to subsidies. This has caused biofuel use to rise dramatically over the last two decades.
Biofuels production is set to grow significantly in the coming years as a group of countries led by India, Brazil and the US aims to massively increase production as part of the Global Biofuels Alliance.
Furthermore, COP30 taking place in Belem will see biofuels championed as a key solution to transport’s energy transition, with the Brazilian presidency aiming to promote a global update on demand as part of the conference’s action agenda.
Who are the top biofuel producers now and in 2030?
Global biofuel production is highly concentrated, with the US, Brazil, and Europe often seen as the “biofuels superpowers” - making up over 75% of output, mostly for road transport. By 2030, demand is projected to rise 40%, with Canada, India, and Brazil driving the biggest increases in first-generation biofuels.
How much land do biofuels need?
Today, growing crops to be burned as fuel uses up 32 million hectares of land - roughly the size of Italy.
All this to meet just 4% of the world’s transport fuel demand.
52 million hectares Biofuel land use by 2030
In 2030, this is set to grow by 60% to 52 million hectares - the size of France.
This would make biofuels the sixth largest country in terms of arable land by 2030.
16% more Global CO₂ emissions from biofuels vs fossil fuels
400 million tonnes CO₂ savings if land used for biofuels would be dedicated to nature restoration
What is the alternative to biofuels?
The supposed benefits of biofuels are lower emissions and domestic energy security. Biofuels are a poor option for both.
When crops are burned for fuel, new land can be needed to grow new crops for food or fuel. This can lead to indirect land clearance and deforestation. Staggeringly, biofuels globally therefore today emit 16% more CO₂ emissions than the fossil fuels they replace. By 2030, biofuels are projected to emit every year 70 MtCO₂e more than the fossil fuels they replace, equivalent to the annual emissions of almost 30 million diesel cars.
The climate benefits of biofuels are often assessed through ‘lifecycle analysis’ (LCA), which adds up emissions from producing, harvesting and transporting crops to a bio-refinery. LCA typically includes emissions from land conversion (when an area is brought into crop production for the first time) but otherwise treats land as a free resource and overlooks the potential climate benefit of allowing the land to revert to a natural state or planting trees on it.
Yet land restoration offers much greater carbon benefits than using the land for biofuel production. Globally, land restoration of areas currently used for damaging biofuels would deliver a whopping 400 million tonnes a year in CO2 savings.
In addition, covering just 3% of the land currently dedicated to biofuels with solar panels would produce the same amount of energy. And as electric vehicles are so much more efficient than fossil fuel cars, that 3% of solar energy would be enough to power close to a third of the world’s cars if they were EVs.
1.3 billion Number of people we could feed from energy used by biofuel feedstocks
How biofuels impact food supplies
Roughly 90% of global biofuel production relies on food commodities, raising questions as to how the growth of the biofuel market has affected global food supply. In 2023, the
biofuel industry consumed around 150 million tonnes of corn, 120 million tonnes of sugarcane and sugar beet.
In total, the equivalent of 100 million bottles of vegetable oil are burned in cars every day, meaning a fifth of all vegetable oil supply is never even used for food.
The energy in these feedstocks could meet the minimum calorific requirements of up to 1.3 billion people. Meanwhile, up to 800 million people in the world face hunger.
3,000 litres of water Needed to drive 100 km with a car on first-generation biofuels
What ecological impacts do biofuels have?
The increased demand for biofuels, from both first-generation and second-generation crops has potentially serious ecological implications for soil health, water quality, biodiversity, and the sustainability of agricultural systems.
For example, the study shows that all biofuels crops require significant amounts of freshwater. Driving 100 km with a car on first-generation biofuels would require on average close to 3,000 litres of water, compared to just about twenty litres for producing solar electricity and using it in an electric car.
Are advanced biofuels a solution?
While many claim that the growth in biofuels will come from an expansion in supposedly cleaner waste and advanced feedstocks like used cooking oil and animal fats, the vast majority of biofuels will continue to come from crops in 2030.
Growing demand from shipping and aviation
On top of already adopted biofuel mandates, biofuels are being promoted for shipping and aviation which will add further pressure to global biofuel demand.
The International Maritime Organization’s new climate rules could see biofuels supplying up to one-third of global shipping fuel demand by the mid-2030s, driven largely by cheap and high-emitting feedstocks like palm and soy oil. Meeting this demand would nearly double current global biofuel use and require up to 35 million hectares of cropland, the equivalent of Germany’s entire land area, for shipping alone. This is on top of what has already been outlined above.
Similarly the aviation industry is also looking towards biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels. For now a growing aviation industry is focusing on waste biofuels like used cooking oil, but evidence from T&E shows that this is already putting heavy pressure on limited waste oil supplies. Unrestrained growth in demand will simply lead to fraud or existing uses of waste oil products being replaced by palm and other damaging oils.
T&E recommendations:
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1
World leaders must ensure that climate and energy transition plans uphold robust safeguards against the most destructive biofuel feedstocks, namely first generation food and feed crops.
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2
Public finance should prioritise electrification, efficiency and genuinely sustainable alternatives, not subsidise false solutions.
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3
Policymakers should limit the influence of vested biofuel industry alliances, such as the Global Biofuels Alliance and Biofuture Platform, within international energy and climate decision-making bodies. While these groups frame biofuels as essential to the energy transition, their members include major fossil fuel companies with a financial stake in maintaining deforestation-linked fuel supply chains.
