Chinese and US truckmakers set to gain over a quarter of European electric truck market by 2030

European truckmakers must accelerate electrification or risk losing a quarter of the e-truck market to new entrants by 2030, T&E analysis has found. T&E’s analysis of e-truck costs, technical specifications, and manufacturers’ targets, highlights risks if European truckmakers delay electrification.

Zero-emission trucks accounted for 5.6% of sales in 2025, double the uptake from a year earlier. This acceleration is due to the EU CO₂ rules, in force since July 2025, and falling battery prices. In markets such as Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, e-trucks make up over 15% of new sales. EU manufacturers now offer more e-trucks at better prices, but T&E’s research finds they face increasing competition as many new entrant models are about to hit the market:

Stef Cornelis, director of freight and fleets at T&E said: “Competitive Chinese and US truck models are already in the European market, many more are poised to enter soon. This is a critical moment for Europe's trucking industry which should learn from what has happened to the car industry. Weakening the pace of electrification now would present an opportunity for US and Chinese competitors to gain a significant share of the market, in Europe and the rest of the world.”

Investments in trucks are primarily driven by cost considerations. Cutting the total cost of ownership (TCO) by over 10% can be a game changer in a haulage sector with razor-thin profit margins routinely between 1.5–2%. Owning a Chinese electric truck can lower the total cost of ownership by 12%, T&E found.

A German transport operator today, opting for an electric truck from a new entrant instead of a European model, could bring the TCO down from €0.63/km to €0.55/km (including residual value). Over five years of ownership, this would save €43,000.

The EU heavy truck market of 245,000 vehicles annually is dominated by a small group of legacy truck makers - Daimler Truck, Traton, IVECO, DAF and Volvo Group. This means that competitive new entrants could capture a big part of the market quickly by offering comparable quality at lower prices.

“Competition will be good for logistics companies and consumers, but the transition offers a limited window for European incumbents to maintain their lead. While they continue to sit on the fence between combustion and electric technologies, and seek to weaken the truck CO₂ targets, new players have fully embraced electrification,” concluded Stef Cornelis.