Aviation
Historically, the decarbonisation of aviation has lagged behind other modes of transport. However, the technology and policy base for change is finally taking off in Europe, and the region has a real chance to lead. But Europe needs to step on the accelerator, not the brake to maintain its global leadership for a clean transition for the sector.
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EU departure flights in 2025 154 Mt of CO2
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Number of departures 6.9 M
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Number of passengers 730 M
EU departure flights caused 154 Mt of CO2 emissions in 2025. This represents around 15% of the EU's transport emissions.
Accounting for non-CO2 emissions like contrails, EU aviation’s climate impact increases to 262 Mt of CO2e - roughly a quarter of the EU’s transport emissions.
European aviation has a growth problem, as it plans to grow at uncontrollable rates at a time when it should be reducing its emissions. While other sectors are decarbonising, aviation and shipping are likely to account for half of Europe’s transport emissions by 2050 if growth continues unabated.
Aviation emissions are now higher than those from cars in some countries
In fact, in seven EU countries, air travel now impacts the climate more than cars once aviation’s total climate impact including non-CO₂ effects is considered.
The EU's carbon market, the European Trading Scheme (ETS), aims at ensuring polluters pay for their emissions and in the case of aviation, is meant to address the sector’s emissions.
However, the EU ETS only covers intra-EU flights, leaving roughly 70% of emissions from flights outside the EU outside its scope.
On the topic of carbon markets, China appears to be making great strides. Its plan to include domestic aviation and cap emissions by 2027 could see it surpass Europe in its limited ambition.
China’s commercial domestic aviation sector alone emits nearly 85 Mt of CO₂ annually, accounting for the vast majority of its aviation emissions. The figure is even greater than the entire scope of the EU ETS for aviation.
So why isn’t the EU addressing most of its aviation emissions?
It's because it is relying on the weak international offsetting scheme, CORSIA. The scheme only applies to emissions growth above a specific baseline (85% of 2019 levels). Consequently, the vast majority of emissions remain excluded, meaning that only 26% of the EU’s current CO₂ aviation emissions would be covered by CORSIA by 2035.
China's decision to include domestic aviation in its carbon market and its ambitious 2027 cap are significant steps forward, and a wake-up call for Europe.
Only ¼ of the world’s aviation emissions are subject to an effective carbon pricing mechanism
Only the EU, China, South Korea and New Zealand have introduced a cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme similar to the EU ETS.
This means that, today, only a fraction of the world’s aviation emissions are subject to an effective carbon pricing mechanism.
Countries that establish carbon markets are much more effective than those that rely on CORSIA’s global offsetting scheme. Not only is this scheme doing very little to reduce carbon emissions, it is also failing to help the uptake of green technologies such as SAF and zero-emission planes.
Furthermore, if China can incorporate aviation into its carbon market, the EU has no excuse not to do the same. The EU should stop relying on CORSIA’s offsetting scheme and start addressing all of its aviation emissions. This would involve extending its ETS to cover all flights to and from Europe.
Sustainable aviation fuels in Europe: moving from plans to implementation
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are expected to play a key role in decarbonising aviation.
In 2023, the EU adopted the world’s most ambitious SAF mandate, with specific targets for synthetic kerosene (e-SAF), providing the demand certainty needed to kick-start the SAF market in Europe.
Driven by EU and UK mandates, Europe has established itself as a leader in the development of e-kerosene, which is potentially the most scalable and sustainable form of SAF.
Europe now accounts for more than half of the world’s announced e-kerosene production capacity. Of the 64 large-scale projects announced worldwide, 41 are in Europe.
However, Europe is leading in terms of announcements but lagging in implementation. There are currently no operational large-scale e-SAF projects in the world.
Only one project in the US has reached the final investment stage, while China is quickly becoming a leading country in e-SAF production, with around ten large-scale projects currently in progress.
In this context, Europe is at risk of losing its early lead in producing e-fuels for aviation.
And, what about the aircraft themselves?
Until recently, the idea of electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft, also known as zero-emission aircraft (ZEA), was unimaginable. But the truth is that they are actually a reality.
In 2020, the first fully electric aircraft received type certification in Europe. In 2023, a 19-seat aircraft powered by a hydrogen-electric engine took to the air.
Across Europe and the United States, many start-ups are now developing larger zero-emission and hybrid aircraft, especially for short regional routes up to ~1,000 km.
China has also made visible progress: COMAC successfully flew a 4-ton battery-electric aircraft in 2024.
Europe has many promising innovators. The challenge for Europe is not a lack of ideas - it is retaining talent and scaling up. Therefore, regulations to create solid market demand, and more targeted funding, should help these companies move from prototypes to commercial production.
Sources:
UNFCCC (aviation and car emissions), BNEF, EUROCONTROL (number of departures), OAG (passenger numbers and aviation emissions), T&E (e-SAF and ZEA)