Draft 2030 biofuels proposal: a brief impact assessment

Last July, the European Commission’s Strategy for Low Emission Mobility promised a ‘phaseout of food-based biofuels’ (labelled first-generation biofuels or ‘1G biofuels’ in this note for brevity). However, this promise of a phase-out is not visible in Annex X of a leaked draft proposal of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED). The leak points to the Commission’s intention to keep 3.8% of 1G biofuels in transport fuels in 2030. This is only 1.1 percentage point less than the 4.9% share of 1G biofuels in transport in 2014.

In this briefing T&E analyses:

1. How much would the Commission’s draft proposal increase EU transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2021-2030 period compared to a ‘proper’ phase-out of 1G biofuels?;

2. How much underestimation of EU transport GHG emissions in the 2021-2030 period would the draft proposal lead to – as a result of the zero-counting of biofuels – compared to a ‘proper’ phase-out of 1G fuels?