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The main findings are:
1. The combination of the starting point with unlimited banking of credits reduces the stringency of the proposal from -30% to -26%.
2. Setting the ESR’s starting point based on a linear trajectory from 2016-2018 emissions (capped by 2020 target) would increase emission cuts throughout the period by over 500 megatons.
There are several options to limit the damage caused by the current starting point. The most obvious is to change the starting point. Alternatively putting a cap on banking – as currently exists for borrowing – would limit the negative impact on the 2030 target and would contribute to increase the real emission cuts.