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Wishful thinking: Auto Fuel Coalition’s 2030 CO2 forecast is 20% below EU’s own research
Road emissions in 2030 reference level (Mt CO2eq)
European Commission 2013 reference scenario 
EEA Trends and projections 
Ricardo Energy & Environment SULTAN 2030 
New Study for the Auto Fuel Coalition
The Auto Fuel Coalition massively underestimates the gap between laboratory test results for car CO2 emissions and real-world performance and ignores two decades of stagnation in truck fuel economy. Unsurprisingly their suggestions for emissions reductions include producing more biofuels and continuing to bias the market for diesel cars through cheap fuel and tax breaks.
Carlos Calvo Ambel, transport and energy analyst at T&E, said: “Carmakers, oil companies and biofuels producers are making a desperate bid to dissuade Europe from undertaking fuel efficiency standards for cars, vans and trucks, a push for electric vehicles and many of the other badly needed actions in the transport sector. If the EU misses the opportunity that the transport decarbonisation strategy gives us, Europe will not achieve its greenhouse gas targets and we will be left behind in the race for the mobility solutions of the future.”
The coalition’s plan to get transport in the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) is also a bad idea: the carbon price would need to be way above €100 to produce any reduction, while it would postpone action in the transport sector, cause higher oil imports, and weaken the ETS itself.
Notes to editors:
 European Commission, 2014. Trends to 2050. Reference scenario 2013.
 European Environment Agency, 2015. Trends and projections in Europe 2015.
 Ricardo Energy & Environment, 2016. SULTAN modelling to explore the wider potential impacts of transport GHG reduction policies in 2030.