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The share of diesel cars declined to below half (49.5%) and emitted, on average, 116.8g CO2/km, 4.9g CO2/km less than the average petrol vehicle. In 2000 the emission difference between diesel and petrol vehicles was much larger (17.1g CO2/km) reflecting the significant improvements in petrol engine efficiency. Diesel cars are, on average, 300kg heavier and also more powerful – reducing their benefit over gasoline.
Greg Archer, clean vehicles director at T&E, said: “Most carmakers are on track to achieve their goals although some will need to accelerate progress. By selling around 3-5% plug-in hybrid and electric cars by 2020, most manufacturers will earn sufficient super-credits to meet their targets. The decline in diesel is not having a dramatic effect on the average emissions, although the continuing growth in SUV sales is offsetting emissions reductions.”
Most companies need to continue to reduce emissions by 2-4% per annum to hit their targets and will be able to take advantage of super-credits from selling low and zero-emissions vehicles from 2020 that double count the lowest carbon models (electric and plug-in hybrid cars). However, Fiat is at significant risk of missing its goals and incurring substantial fines in excess of €1 billion. Fiat’s emissions have only improved at 1% per annum over the period 2009-2016 and must accelerate to 5% per annum in the next few years.
Daimler recently warned that it may miss its target, but T&E said the official data does not support this claim. Daimler needs to reduce emissions by about 4% per annum from 2017 compared to a reduction since 2009 of about 3.5% per annum.