Maritime ETS: facts, figures, no myths

Key recommendations

• Shipping should pay its fair share. Global shipping accounts for over 1,000 Mt of CO₂ emissions annually. The maritime ETS provides a strong incentive to cut emissions while mobilising significant resources for industrial decarbonisation: around €10bn per year once fully implemented.

• Promoting only a global framework for tackling shipping emissions is betting on the wrong horse. The adoption of the NZF is highly uncertain, and unlikely to enter into force before 2030 in any case. If implemented, its carbon pricing would cover only a small fraction of EU shipping emissions, leaving more than 85% unpriced.

• Europe is leaving a major chunk of shipping emissions unaddressed. The upcoming review is an opportunity to include smaller vessels above 400GT, which emit nearly 18 Mt of CO₂ annually. Their inclusion would unlock rapid decarbonisation, raise around €2.4 billion per year from 2028-2035 for Member States, and with appropriate reporting mechanisms would not overburdening small operators.

• The maritime ETS will soon generate €10 billion-a-year. Dedicating a targeted share of revenues, around 25%, to scaling up EU e-fuel production could unlock €24 billion by 2039 and deliver 5 million tonnes of green marine fuels, while preserving the polluter-pays principle by ensuring ETS revenues remain public climate funds rather than a blanket subsidy for the sector.

• Carbon leakage risks remain limited, manageable, and do not justify weakening the maritime ETS. They can be addressed through narrowly targeted, CBAM-style anti-evasion safeguards that strengthen the ETS without distorting port competition or the wider system.