From barrel to battery: what will Europe’s clean car debate decide

The EU is fiercely debating the future of the automotive industry and how far the transition to battery electric cars will be slowed down. Last time we had this debate back in 2022, Europe was likewise in the middle of an energy crisis. But today, much has changed and the debate is completely out of touch with reality.

In 2022, the European Green Deal set the direction and demonstrated true political leadership: the future is electric. New cars sold after 2035 would no longer rely on polluting, expensive, imported fossil fuels.

At the time, Europe was suffering from the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices soared to $120 per barrel, while lithium ion battery prices stood at $170 per kWh.

Today, however, the EU is on the verge of dismantling the Green Deal and specifically its poster child, the clean car targets. Meanwhile, another major geopolitical event has sent oil prices surging back towards 2022 levels. The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting spike in energy prices have once again laid bare the consequences of fossil fuel dependency. European drivers are paying the price, just as they did in previous crises. But unlike in the past, the solution is now readily available.

Since 2022, average battery prices have dropped dramatically to $105 per kWh in 2026 globally.

While oil prices repeatedly breached $105 per barrel between March and May, over the past three weeks they have experienced a sharp surge, continuously climbing well past the $105 mark.

This is a symbolic moment. A kWh of battery capacity costs less than a barrel of oil.

Batteries benefit from compounding learning curves and economies of scale that will continue to drive prices down. Oil, by contrast, remains an inherently volatile commodity bound to geopolitical instability and supply shocks.

Over its lifetime a car will consume more than 100 barrels of petrol which requires more than 200 barrels of crude oil. By contrast, the electric car needs around 50 kWh of battery to travel the same distance. Unlike burned fuel, that battery remains a reusable, recyclable asset long into the future.

This has profound practical implications for European drivers. This year, high road fuel prices led to an oil crisis premium of €55 billion for cars, or €220 euros per car every year. Electric vehicle drivers on the other hand have been largely unaffected by the higher energy prices and currently pay on average 2-3 times less for fuel than petrol and diesel car drivers.

Political leaders are proposing to reverse the EV momentum - it is time for a reset

This simple comparison underscores a bigger story, one of political leaders failing in their responsibility to protect European households and the wider economy.

While the EU weathers what the IEA has called the “mother of all energy crises,” the European Parliament and Member States are formalising a deal that includes a backwards-looking vision for the future of the automotive industry. One that allows biofuels cars to replace electric cars, despite all the evidence showing it’s an economic, industrial and technical dead end.

Many political leaders are trying a last desperate tactic to extend the life of the combustion engine by any means possible. Effectively, the proposals discussed would gut the car CO₂ regulations by allowing carmakers to comply without selling a single electric car, shielding fossil fuel and biofuel interests while undermining the business case for Europe’s homegrown EV and battery industries.

Circumstances have changed dramatically since December 2025, when the European Commission first proposed easing the 2035 combustion-car phase-out. Politicians must act decisively to protect citizens and make this fossil fuel crisis Europe’s last one. We need an immediate reset of the electric car debate to protect European industry and consumers, as demanded in June by a broad coalition of industry groups and civil society.

The electric car market is surging, with the two biggest markets, France and Germany, seeing the sales of electric cars double in the past few months, compared to the previous year. Now is not the time to choke off that momentum and tell drivers and industry leaders that they just have to live with our debilitating oil dependency.

This autumn, the European Parliament and Council must send a signal to industry: it should focus on the technology of the future, or Europeans will pay the price of remaining in the fossil fuel past.