EV progress report: Which EU carmakers are on track for 2025-27 targets?
The EU’s CO₂ regulation for cars and vans is the backbone of Europe’s automotive climate and industrial policy. Data from the first half of 2025 show that the EV transition is on track.
Key findings:
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All European carmakers are on track to comply over 2025-2027 thanks to a surge in their BEV sales - reaching 25% share over the 3-year period (18% in 2025);
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However, with the EU’s delay of the 2025 target, carmakers took their foot off the gas, leading to a shortfall of 2 million BEVs (over 2025-2027). Evidence shows that carmakers inflated BEV price premiums as CO2 targets got relaxed;
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Despite carmakers’ attempt to slow down the EV market, structural battery price decreases will continue to power the EV transition. By 2027, EV battery prices are expected to drop more than over the past three years;
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Charging coverage is surging in line with BEV penetration: All EU countries have already exceeded their 2025 target for the total number of charging points and almost 80% of the core EU highway network is covered;
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While the EU is discussing the 2035 target, global markets are going electric fast: Mexico (5% BEV share in H1 2025), Indonesia (13%), Thailand (24%), China (30%), Vietnam (42%). Europe is losing ground in the global EV race.
Europe now faces a decisive choice: to either lead the global BEV race and confidently enter the electric age or risk falling behind in the fossil fuel era. Weakening the 2030-35 CO2 targets would dismantle all investments and efforts on EVs while China would extend its lead on EVs.
Mercedes-Benz is expected to keep pooling with Volvo Cars and Polestar over 2025-2027. Pooling allows Mercedes-Benz to focus on profitable and polluting ICEs.
With the US market closing to EU imports due to new 15% tariffs (up from 2.5%), the most accessible opportunities are now in Asia, South America, and Africa - regions that also host the fastest-growing BEV markets.
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