Europe's oil dependency: The geopolitical premium

In late February 2026, the United States and Israel carried out extensive coordinated strikes on Iran, prompting Iran to retaliate with drone and missile attacks against targets in Israel and several other countries in the surrounding region. Attacks on oil production and refining facilities, along with the cessation of the movement of virtually all cargoes through the straits of Hormuz, which is the key transit of fossil fuels from the Middle East to Europe and eastward, particularly to China, India and Japan.

On 9 March and again on 12 March, the cost of Brent crude oil surged past $100 per barrel. In 2023, the EU spent €427 billion on imported energy - more than €1 billion per day. In 2022 when the price of oil was last over $100/barrel, energy imports cost the EU €604 billion, around €500 million more per day.

T&E’s analysis into oil price premiums in 2022 show that Europe paid a high price for its dependence on imported oil with drivers spending an additional €55 billion at the pumps.

This will lead to higher profits for fossil fuel companies. Back in 2022, it was estimated that the combined profits of some of the world’s biggest oil companies – Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies – amounted to nearly $200bn.