Only 26% of EU aviation’s CO2 emissions would be covered by CORSIA by 2035
€7-43 billion over the next 10 years
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) meets for its 42nd General Assembly (23rd September - 3rd October), in which this UN aviation agency assesses its progress on the Long Term Aspirational Goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the extent to which it is contributing to a greener aviation sector.
Under particular scrutiny is CORSIA, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, which is supposed to complement other aviation in-sector emissions reductions efforts such as technological innovations, operational improvements and sustainable aviation fuels to meet the ICAO aspirational goal of carbon neutral growth.
To date, CORSIA has failed to stabilize aviation’s CO2 emissions or help the uptake of green technologies like SAF and zero-emission planes.
Moreover, a new T&E analysis highlights that CORSIA is an expensive distraction from climate measures that can have real impact, such as the EU ETS.
The new T&E analysis finds that:
-
CORSIA offsets could cost European aviation €7-43 billion over the next 10 years.
-
This money will be spent on offsetting projects with minimal benefit for the climate or local communities.
-
Although the scope of the scheme is meant to cover the majority of international aviation emissions (including flights departing and incoming Europe), the current design of CORSIA means that a mere 26% of EU international emissions will be “offset” by 2035.
Why should the EU stop relying on CORSIA to clean up its aviation sector?
Concerns about ICAO are well documented. In their recent analysis, green group InfluenceMap finds that there is a high level of industry capture, with ICAO meetings sponsored by large fossil fuel companies and airlines and aviation industry delegates outnumbering green groups by 14 to 1 at meetings. This industry influence is combined with limited transparency: key meeting documents are not publicly available and participants are required to sign non-disclosure agreements to participate.
In the last General Assembly in 2022, ICAO introduced a CO2 emissions reduction goal which “does not attribute specific obligations or commitments” to member states.
Moreover, CORSIA only applies to the growth in aviation emissions (above a baseline of 85% of 2019 emissions). This means that the scheme will cover just 26% of EU aviation’s CO2 emissions by 2035, T&E finds.
Why is strengthening the European Trading System (ETS) to cover all departing flights from the EU the best way to secure climate goals?
The analysis also finds that CORSIA could cost European aviation - i.e. airlines and aircraft operators - between 7 and 43 billion euros over the next ten years, depending on the number of states participating and the amount of accredited offsetting projects. This is nearly triple the cost of building the Eurotunnel.
Whilst the EU relies on CORSIA to "price" aviation emissions departing and incoming the bloc, its own cap-and-trade system (the EU ETS) prices CO2 emissions on intra-European flights. Besides, CORSIA credits still remain far cheaper than EU ETS allowances. This means that CORSIA still fails to provide a real incentive for aviation to decarbonise. In contrast, a cap and trade system like the EU ETS sets a hard limit on emissions and makes polluters pay.
This also means that relying on CORSIA and not extending the EU ETS will cost Europe billions in lost revenues - revenues that could have been reinvested in Europe.
For 2024, T&E calculated that extending the scope of the EU ETS to cover long haul flights could have unlocked an extra €7.5 billion (on top of the €3.2 billion generated with the current scope) - revenues much needed to finance green aviation technologies such as e-fuels.
Read the full analysis HERE
