Analysis of Bloomberg data shows that there is a pipeline of SAF projects across the globe and within the UK with the capacity to meet the UK SAF Mandate targets in the 2020s.

Executive Summary

Bloomberg’s global advanced fuels production data suggests that even with increasing demand for SAF, there will be sufficient supply to meet the UK Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Mandate targets without needing to weaken its environmental criteria.

The Mandate is the UK's primary policy for cutting aviation emissions, and maintaining its integrity is crucial for unlocking domestic investment in sustainable aviation fuel production and meeting our climate targets. At its core, the Mandate provides a long term price signal that gives the UK a clear competitive advantage in securing future supply.

This new data rebuts calls by industry to allow imported crop-based biofuels - which have little to no emissions savings potential and drive environmental damage - into the scheme. They claim that this change is necessary to decarbonise the sector at the required pace, however weakening targets would undermine the business case for investing in advanced and e-SAF production in the UK.

Advanced fuels, and particularly e-fuels, should be prioritised as they deliver the largest emissions savings and are fully scalable, unlike other fuels that are reliant on constrained feedstocks (like used cooking oil or animal fat) and compete with food (like crop based biofuels). E-SAF can be produced domestically, offering energy and national security benefits by reducing reliance on volatile global fossil fuel markets.

Recent calls for evidence on the SAF Mandate risk critically undermining progress and confidence for investors. Unnecessary and short-sighted changes to policy could cause investment to flow abroad to regions with more stable and predictable regulation, which will jeopardise the UK’s economic advantage.

The UK Government can best support advanced fuel production by:

1. Maintaining the current advanced and e-SAF targets within the SAF Mandate - altering targets would undermine investor confidence and jeopardise long-term capital investment which is vital for market certainty.

2. Delivering the revenue certainty mechanism without further delay - this is essential to remove financial risk and secure bank backing, allowing SAF projects to reach final investment decisions in time to meet 2030s mandate demands.

3. Ensure a separate funding stream within the revenue certainty mechanism for e-SAF - this will shield e-SAF projects from being undercut by less effective biofuels and ensure targeted support to scale this nascent technology.

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