The transport sector is likely to prevent the EU from reducing its total greenhouse gas emissions by 80%, according to the results of a project set up by the Commission.

The project was begun with the aim of working out emissions-reduction scenarios for transport up to 2050, but preliminary results suggest the most ambitious scenario would still only deliver a reduction of less than 60% between 1990 and 2050.

That would not allow the EU to achieve an overall 80% reduction, despite reductions in other sectors.

The analysis looked at combinations of policy options and technological improvements, including new vehicle emission limits, increased fuel taxes, advances in electric and hydrogen cars and speed limits.

The project organisers say deep emissions cuts will require lots of measures, including reducing demand for transport. They also say measures have to be introduced soon if the 2050 target is to be met, because most measures take a long time to have a profound effect.The project may produce further scenarios in the next few months, though it is unclear whether any more effective scenarios can be developed.

The findings will be used as background material for the Commission’s white paper on transport due out at the end of this year.

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